Carlos M. Carvalho, Ph.D.
Professor of Statistics


Google Scholar Citations

   Published work
  • H. Bonfarine, J. Murray, H. Lopes and C. Carvalho (2024)Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection in Gaussian Linear Factor Analysis. Bayesian Analysis

  • A. Krylov et al. (2023)In defense of merit in science. Journal of Controversial Ideas

  • Abbott, D., Marianovic, I., Lowery R., and Carvalho, C.(2023)Merit, fairness, and equality. How to Keep Free Inquiry Alive

  • Lowery, R. and Carvalho, C.(2022)How critical theory fundamentally challenges traditional inquiry in social science. Journal of Law, Economic and Policy.

  • J. Starling, Carvalho, C. et al (2021) Targeted Smooth Bayesian Causal Forests: An analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for simultaneous versus interval medical abortion regimens over gestation. Annals of Applied Statistics.

  • S, Woody, J. Murray and C. Carvalho (2021) Model Interpretation through Lower-dimensional Posterior Summarization Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics.

  • C. Carvalho, R. McCulloch, R. Hahn and E. George (2021) Variable Selection and Interaction Detection with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees Handbook on Bayesian Variable Selection

  • Fisher, J., Puelz, D. and Carvalho, C.(2020) Monotonic Effects of Characteristics on Returns. Annals of Applied Statistiscs.

  • Hahn, R., Murray, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2020) Bayesian regression tree models for causal inference: regularization, confounding, and heterogeneous effects. Bayesian Analysis.

  • Carvalho, C., Fisher, J. and Pettenuzzo, D.(2020) Optimal Asset Allocation with Multivariate Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models. Annals of Applied Statistics.

  • Starling, J., et al. (2020) Targeted Smooth BART: an analysis of patient-specific stillbirth risk. Annals of Applied Statistics.

  • Yaeger, D., et al. (2019) A national experiment reveals where a growth mindset improves achievement. Nature.

  • Bashir, A., et al. (2019) Post-processing posteriors over precision matrices to produce sparse graph estimates. Bayesian Analysis.

  • Carvalho, C., Feller, A., Murray, J, Woody, S and Yeager, D.(2019) Assessing Treatment Effect Variation in Observational Studies: Results from a Data Challenge. Observational Studies.

  • Puelz, D., Hahn, R. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2019) Portfolio Selection for Individual Passive Investing. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Lopes, H. and McCulloch, R. (2018) On the Long Run Volatility of Stocks. Journal of the American Statistical Association.

  • Hahn, R., Carvalho, Carlos M., He, J. Puelz, D. (2018) Regularization and Confounding in Linear Regression for Treatment Effect Estimation. Bayesian Analysis.

  • Puelz, D., Hahn, R. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2017) Variable Selection in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Random Predictors. Bayesian Analysis.

  • Hahn, P.R. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2015) Decoupled Shrinkage and Selection in Baysian Linear Models Journal of the American Statistical Association.

  • Windle, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2014) A Tractable State-Space Model for Symmetric Positive-Definite Matrices. Bayesian Analysis 9.

  • Park, Y., Ghosh, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2014) A Stable, Scalable Approach to Latent Vector Autoregressive Modeling of Categorical Time Series Journal of Machine Learning Research, WC&P (AIStats)

  • Hahn, P.R., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Mukherjee (2013) Partial Factor Modeling: Predictor Dependent Shrinkage for Linear Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association.

  • Lopes, H.F. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2013) Online Bayesian Learning in Dynamic Models: An illustrative Introduction to Particle Methods. In Hierarchical Models and Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

  • Ho, J., Park, Y., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Ghosh, J. (2013) DYNA-CARE: Dynamic Cardiac Arrest Risk Estimation." Journal of Machine Learning Research, WC&P (AIStats)

  • Ho, J., Park, Y., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Ghosh, J. (2013) DYNACARE-OP: Dynamic Cardiac Arrest Risk Estimation Incorporating Ordinal Features." ICML 2013, Healthcare Workshop

  • Hahn, P.R., Scott, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2012) A Sparse Factor-Analytic Probit Model for Congressional Voting Patterns. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C, 61

  • Lopes, H.F, Polson, N.G. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2012) Bayesian Statistics with a Smile: a Resampling-Sampling Perspective. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics.

  • Lopes, H.F, Carvalho, Carlos M., Johannes, M. and Polson, N.G. (2011) Particle Learning for Sequential Bayesian Computation. Bayesian Statistics 9.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Lopes, H.F and Aguilar, O. (2011) Dynamic Stock Selection Strategies: a Structured Factor Model Framework. Bayesian Statistics 9.

  • Wang, H., Reeson, C. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2011) Dynamic Financial Index Models: Modeling Conditional Dependencies via Graphs. Bayesian Analysis 6 .

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Lopes, H.F., Polson, N.G. and Taddy, M.(2010) Particle Learning for General Mixtures. Bayesian Analysis, 5.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Polson, N.G. and Scott, J.G. (2010) The Horseshoe Estimator for Sparse Signals. Biometrika, 97, 465-480.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Johannes, M., Lopes, H.F and Polson, N.G. (2010) Particle Learning and Smoothing. Statistical Science, 25(1), 88-106.

  • Wang, H. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2010) Simulation of Hyper-Inverse Wishart Distributions for Non-decomposable Graphs. Electronic Journal of Statistics.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and Rickershauser, J.(2010) Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Measure of Information Flow in Political Campaigns. Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, .

  • Quintana, J.M., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Scott, J.G.(2010) Futures Markets, Bayesian Forecasting and Risk Modeling. Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, .

  • Lucas, J., Carvalho, Carlos M., Merl, D. and West, M.(2010) In-Vitro to In-Vivo Factor Profiling in Expression Genomics. Bayesian Modeling in Bioinformatics.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and Scott, J.G. (2009) Objective Bayesian Model Selection in Gaussian Graphical Models. Biometrika, 96, 1-16.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Polson, N. and Scott, J.G. (2009) Handling Sparsity via the Horseshoe. Journal of Machine Learning Research, W&CP 5 (AIStats).

  • Chang, J., Carvalho, Carlos M., Mori, S., Bild, A., Gatza, M., Wang, Q., Lucas, J., Potti, A., Febbo, P., West, M. and Nevins, J. (2009) A Genomic Strategy to Elucidate Modules of Oncogenic Pathway Signaling Networks Molecular Cell 34, 104–114

  • Lucas, J.,Carvalho, Carlos M. and West, M. (2009) A Bayesian Analysis Strategy for Cross-study Translation of Gene Expression Biomarkers. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 8(1).

  • Lucas, J.,Carvalho, Carlos M., Chen, J., Chi, J. and West, M.(2009) Cross-study Projections of Genomic Biomarkers: An Evaluation in Cancer Genomics. PLoS One, 4 (2).

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Chang, J., Lucas, J., Wang, Q., Nevins, J. and West, M. (2008) High-dimensional Sparse Factor Modelling: Applications in Gene Expression Genomics. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103 (4), 1438–1456 .

  • Rajaratnam, B., Massam, H. and Carvalho, Carlos M., (2008) Flexible Covariance Estimation in Graphical Gaussian Models. Annals of Statistics 36(6), 2818-2849 .

  • Scott, J.G. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2008) Feature-Inclusion Stochastic Search for Gaussian Graphical Models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 17, 790-808.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Massam, H. and West, M. (2007)Simulation of Hyper Inverse-Wishart Distributions in Graphical Models. Biometrika 94, 647-659.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and West, M. (2007)Dynamic Matrix-Variate Graphical Models. Bayesian Analysis 2, 69-98

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and West, M. (2007)Dynamic Matrix-Variate Graphical Models - A synopsis. Bayesian Statistics 8, 585-590

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and Lopes, H.F. (2007) Simulation-based Sequential Analysis of Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility Models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 51, 4526-4542.

  • Lopes, H.F. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2007)Factor Stochastic Volatility with Time-varying Loadings and Markov Switching Regimes. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 137, 3082-3091.

  • Lucas,J.,Carvalho, C.M., Wang, Q., Bild, A., Nevins, J.R. and West, M. (2006)Sparse Statistical Modelling in Gene Expression Genomics. In Bayesian Inference for Gene Expression and Proteomics.

  • Jones,B., Carvalho,C.M., Dobra,A., Hans,C., Carter,C. and West,M. (2005)Experiments in Stochastic Computation for High-dimensional Graphical Models. Statistical Science, 20, 388-400


  •    Other stuff...
  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Daniel, K. and Titman, S. (2014) Testing Factor Asset Pricing Models. (Work in progress)

  • Bianchi, D. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2013)Risk Assessment in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Hurts. (Working paper)

  • Rickershauser, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M. and (2008) Developing and Testing Theories of the Causes of War: Assessing Key Events Leading to the Iraq War Using Prediction Markets. (submitted for publication)

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. (2007) Smoothing the Transition. Bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis 14 (4).

  • Wang, Q., Carvalho, Carlos M., Lucas, J. and West, M. (2007) BFRM: Bayesian Factor Regression Modelling. Bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis 14 (2).


  •    Ph.D. Dissertation


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