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Handouts distributed in class:

Introductory Lecture

Classical Seasonal Decomposition

RMA Method of Seasonal Decomposition

Regression: Part 1

Excel Commands

Deterministic Trend Fitting and Extrapolation: Part 1

Deterministic Trend Fitting and Extrapolation: Part 2

Random Walk Models

Simple Exponential Smoothing Models: Part 1

Simple Exponential Smoothing Models: Part 2

Holt's Exponential Smoothing Model

Course Overview Through February 23

Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing Model

Modified Holt's Exponential Smoothing Model

Confidence Intervals: Part 1

Confidence Intervals: Part 2

Confidence Intervals: Part 2 - Dotplots

Confidence Intervals: Part 3

Confidence Intervals - Effect of Using the Wrong Model

Difficult Series to Model

Summary of Forecasting Models

Regression: Part 2

PaintSalesAnalysis

Summary of Regression Models

Diffusion Models: New Product Forecasting